The numbers behind the Buccaneers’ playoff hopes.
The 2024 NFL season is 10 games in, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are dangerously close to not making the playoffs for the first time in almost five years.
After their total collapse in Super Bowl LI, the Atlanta Falcons have been attempting to rebuild, which has been – up to this year at least – unsuccessful.
Since their Super Bowl appearance in 2015, the Carolina Panthers have also been in constant rebuild mode.
The New Orleans Saints have also struggled since Drew Brees’ retirement, as cap space issues continue to plague the franchise.
The combination of the consistent sub-par performances of these teams has allowed the Bucs to take the NFC South crown with relative ease over the past few seasons.
This year however, is different. The Falcons have been more competitive at 6-4, having already swept the Bucs.
The NFC as a whole is far more competitive than years prior, where Tampa Bay has been able to rely on sub-10 win seasons.
The Bucs currently have two paths to the playoffs. Either win their division, or qualify as a wild card.
Winning the NFC South
With their 6-4 record and relatively easy remaining schedule, it is very likely the Falcons will win the NFC South.
The New York Times playoff simulator gives the Bucs a 9% chance of winning the NFC South. ESPN however, gives Tampa Bay a 15% chance of taking the division crown.
The NFL – the most generous of all – predicts the Bucs still have a 22% chance of winning the division.
Between all three, the Bucs are on average predicted to have a 16% chance of winning the NFC South.
Although these are relatively low odds, the division is not out of their hands just yet.
If they do not win the NFC South, how else can the Bucs get in?
Go wild or go home
There are three Wild-Card spots up for grabs. The Bucs need the current NFC division leaders to keep winning and the chasing Wild Card teams to keep losing.
They also will need to put their AFC hats on. Tampa Bay will need some help from AFC teams to beat aspiring NFC Wild Card teams.
The New York Times predicts the Bucs have a 15% chance of making the playoffs through the Wild Card route, while ESPN gives them a 24% chance.
Once again the NFL prediction is the most encouraging at 39% – the same percentage as BleacherReport.
Combined, the Bucs average a 29% chance of making the playoffs as a Wild Card.
For now, it is all in Tampa Bay’s hands. Can they do it? Only time will tell.
