Lesson learnt!
Last week I was thrilled to be invited to chat on the ‘Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover’ podcast.
Among a selection of what turned out to be incredibly bad predictions, I foolishly vouched for my team – the Los Angeles Chargers.
“If the Chargers are fully fit I think it is a game they will edge,” were my exact words. How wrong that proved to be.
Baker Mayfield continued his incredible resurgence, leading the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a 40-17 win at SoFi Stadium.
It is the first time in 2024 that the Chargers defense has allowed more than 30 points in a game. Justin Herbert and co. also failed to score a single point in the second half.
So where does this leave the Bolts?
Play-off odds drop slightly
A fortnight ago, the odds of the Chargers reaching the playoffs stood at around 95%. That number has now dropped to 88% according to the official NFL website.
Back-to-back defeats has seen the Bolts drop from 8-4 to 8-6, but they should still be playing come January.
That is in large part down to the fact they still have to play the Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots – who have a combined record of 5-22 this season.
Jim Harbaugh’s team are two wins clear of the chasing pack of the Miami Dolphins, Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals, all of which are on 6-8.
Which just three weeks remaining in the regular season, one more win should be enough. Two will get the job done.
The other game remaining on the Chargers’ schedule is an AFC West match-up against the now 9-5 Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football.
Bo Nix has exceeded all expectations in his first year in Denver, and the Broncos have their eyes set on causing an upset in the playoffs.
They will be a good barometer of where the Chargers now stand after two straight losses. It is not as simple as ‘win and in’, but for all intents and purposes that will be the case on Thursday.
Other awful predictions
Not one to avoid talking about my mistakes, let us laugh at my other awful predictions on the ‘Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover’ podcast.
I foolishly thought a bad Cincinnati Bengals defense would be at least good enough to stop the Tennessee Titans. I backed the under of 47 points – in reality 64 were scored.
At half-time of the Commanders-Saints game by Washington (-7.5) prediction looked well on its way to winning. Much like the Spanish Inquisition, nobody expected Spencer Rattler to lead New Orleans to the brink of victory.
However he did, and the Saints were a two-point conversion away from stunning the Commanders – who eventually won 20-19.
The final botched prediction saw me select the Pittsburgh Steelers (+5) as my underdog selection. This was knowing full well that the Philadelphia Eagles had won nine straight games.
On the plus side, I did correctly predict the Bills-Lions game would have over 54.5 points. In fact 90 points were scored in an incredible match between two teams who could well meet again in the Super Bowl.
Thinking about it, that prediction was correct by 35.5 points. That is more than the other three incorrect picks were out by in total.
Call it a win?
