One missed call and two minutes of madness.
Despite the stats, that is all that separated the teams on the day.
Picture the scene. It is late in the second quarter, with two minutes and 14 seconds left to play in the half.
Washington have overcome some early mishaps, including the touchdown run from Saquon Barkley on the Eagles’ first play and Philadelphia stripping the ball from Dyami Brown and recovering it on Washington’s second drive.
Washington did it by fighting for every inch, and by going for it on 4th down several times. They also made the utterly ballsy call to go for a fake punt from their own 31-yard line.
All of that led to the touchdown pass from Jayden Daniels to Terry McLaurin, and despite failing the two-point conversion they are now just two points behind. It is 14-12 to Philadelphia.
Sliding Doors moment
The Eagles have the ball, but their drive has been stalling, as Washington seem to be finding a way to limit the Eagles explosive plays, and now the Eagles elect to go for it on 4th down with five yards to go, at the Washington 45-yard line.
They plan to throw deep to A.J. Brown, but Frankie Luvu blitzes and is held by Barkley. If the referees correctly called the holding penalty, the Eagles would have been backed up 10 yards to their own 45, and on 4th and 15 inevitably punted.
That would have set up JD5 time. The momentum is all with Washington, and there is two minutes and 14 seconds left in the half, the perfect amount of time to score.
What are the three likely outcomes here?
Worst case, Washington punt, and it is half time, Washington go in down 12-14.
Second worst case they settle for a field goal, Washington go in up 15-14.
Given how Daniels has played all year, my money would have been on JD5 leading a touchdown-scoring drive. Washington then go in up 19-14. The upset is on!
Instead, the Eagles convert on 4th down, and after a pass interference call on Lattimore on ‘3rd & 13′ they are gifted ‘1st and Goal’ from the one-yard line and use the tush push to score.
On the kick-off return Jeremy McNichols fumbles the ball, and the Eagles take over in perfect field position. The Eagles drive is once again aided on third down by a penalty on cornerback Mike Sainristil hitting Saquon Barkely as he went out of bounds, and once again the Eagles score.
While Washington manage a quick drive for a field goal the score at the half is 27-15.
All of that does not happen if the hold is called. One fumble, and two touchdowns are the direct result of that no call.
Instead, two minutes of madness are inserted into the game, and arguably that is the difference in the game.
An alternative second half
Of course, who knows what would have happened. We know the Eagles would have punted, but anything could have happened after that.
What we do know is that in the second half both teams punted on their opening drives, and both teams subsequently scored touchdowns.
That takes us to just before the end of the third quarter when a great strip on running back Austin Ekeler forces a fumble. This may, or may not have been the play that decided the game.
However, you have to think of that strip fumble in the context of the game.
In the game that happened, it felt like a nail in the coffin. Washington were down by 11 at that point, thanks to the two touchdowns at the end of the first half. When the Eagles capitalised on the fumble with another touchdown to make it an 18 point game it was all but over.
Had the penalty been called in the first half, Washington would likely be up by five points, and it is still very much a live game, whether the Eagles go on to score or not.
Who would have won had the penalty been called?
Who knows, but it would be the game we were supposed to have, and it would not be the blowout that does not do justice to what Washington did in the game.
Washington played great on the day?
Despite the score, despite the first two turnovers, despite the missed call from the referees, Washington only trailed by 11 heading into the fourth quarter.
While Barkley started off with a huge run that suggested Washington were going to get steamrolled, Washington managed to contain his runs from then on.
While Hurts had some great phases of play, heading into the fourth quarter he had had 28 drop backs, been sacked twice, and been under pressure 12 times.
Effectively he was under pressure on half his passes. That resulted in him throwing it away, scrambling for very little yardage, or missing his targets.
Amazingly, against the odds, Washington moved the ball against the top defense, and at the same time their defense was stopping Philadelphia from running away with it.
This game was much closer than the score reflected. The “turnovers cost them the game” narrative misses a huge point.
Yes, the first turnover was a disaster, but quite frankly the second one would have never been possible. The third one, well, that may have been the difference between the two teams.
One missed call, and two minutes of madness, that is all it took to change the trajectory of a season, and the potential history making Super Bowl appearance of JD5 as the first ever rookie quarterback to make a Super Bowl.
What could have been
It was a great game, and could have been one of the greatest. But we were all denied the pleasure of watching it by one missed call.
As former Eagles centre Jason Kelce said, the Eagles were better on paper in almost every category. I would argue Washington was better in one, at quarterback.
Washington were going to have to do it the hard way, and they did. They played as a team, and worked hard for every inch, every first down.
They used every trick they had up their sleeves, including going for it on fourth downs, as they had done all year, and more than any other team in NFL history.
The difference on paper was equalised by containing Barkley and harassing Hurts.
While turnovers did not help Washington on a day where fans thought they would have to be perfect, I have a feeling the game would have come down to the last possession, much like the rest of Washington’s season.
Ultimately, it is what it is. All teams suffer from penalties and missed penalties. It is an unfortunate part of the game. But it certainly lends weight to the idea that there should be the option to challenge penalties, or missed penalties.
For transparency, my opinion was formed in the calm reflection of watching the game again days later, knowing the ultimate outcome, and not having to deal with the emotions on the day.
If you disagree, watch the game in full again with this in mind, then tell me I am wrong.
