I feel like I have been here before.
The Buffalo Bills are rolling. Temperatures have dropped. Snow fills Orchard Park, home to the Buffalo Bills.
Josh Allen becomes an unstoppable, marauding juggernaut. His arm strength ensures the Bills have a deep ball threat. His legs ensure there is a dual aspect run game.
It is great to be a Bills fan. So why do I have the feeling I have been here before?
Why does my optimism at what lies ahead also have an under-current of “well we should have seen that coming”?
Defence wins championships… right?
A mantra often uttered by those in the NFL commentary box. It is true – believe it or not, but having a good defence can lead you far in pursuit of a Super Bowl.
Since 1970, just nine winners have had a sub-10th ranked defense in the league. That leaves 44 winners with a defence ranked 10th or higher.
Incredibly, 14 of those Super Bowl winners have had the best defence in the league that year.
In recent years this has differed. In 2021 the Los Angeles Rams in 2021 ranked 15th and a year later the Kansas City Chiefs were 16th.
So where do the Bills lie in 2024? Currently they are 12th.
Having conceded 90 points in their last two games however, maybe this is warped. So there is some reason for optimism after all.
Getting on the offensive
What about the inverse? If defense no longer wins championships as much as it used to – does offense do it instead?
Again, by the same metric, only nine teams have had a sub-10th ranked offense and still won the Super Bowl during the same era.
Curious.
And where do the Bill lie in offence this year? Second! Only behind the Detroit Lions, who they put to the sword last weekend.
Okay, I am starting to feel better about this now.
Can I have my cake and eat it?
In total, 36 of the 53 Super Bowl winners have had both a top 10 offense and defense.
If the Bills can finish the season strongly – it is entirely likely they fall into that category and have reasons – albeit statistical reasons – for hope this post season.
The Bills secondary was injured this week – Rasul Douglas, Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin all sitting out.
Would I love to watch the Bills not concede 40+ points this weekend?
Yes. That would go a long way towards me feeling better about our chances against Elite offences in the post season.
Am I apprehensive still? Yes. I would love to feel confident that Sean McDermott and co. can effectively manage the final two minutes of a game.
Am I ready to get hurt again with some good old fashioned playoff heartbreak? Without a doubt.
