Amazingly, the Cincinnati Bengals’ postseason dream still has a faint pulse in Week 18.
After starting 0-3 and 1-4, then stumbling to 4-8, the Cincinnati Bengals have steadily improved to reach 8-8 off the back of a four-game winning streak.
Since 1990, only six NFL teams starting 1-4 have made the playoffs.
Of course, Cincinnati might still fall at the last hurdle this weekend. But for now, they continue to defy the odds.
Depending on whose numbers you believe, those odds now range from an pessimistic 5.9% on FanDuel, through to 11.8% on ESPN and 15% on NFL.com, to the more promising 21% according to Next Gen Stats.
And whichever forecasting model you rely on, a team given just a 0.8% chance in Week 12 has somehow stayed relevant to the very end.
What needs to happen?
While the pundits debate the exact numbers, one thing is certain. Now that the Indianapolis Colts have dropped out of the race, the Bengals’ fate hangs on three crucial outcomes this weekend:
- A Bengals win over Pittsburgh (could the Steelers rest starters, having punched their postseason ticket already?)
- A Miami Dolphins loss at the New York Jets (there is the weather to consider and uncertainties about both starting quarterbacks)
- A Denver Broncos loss to the Kansas City Chiefs (the AFC’s top seed will almost certainly rest the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce)
Cincinnati plays a rare Saturday night game, which is in the early hours of Sunday morning here in the UK.
So us Bengals fans will know what, if anything, rests on those Miami and Denver games well in advance.
It could be the most nervous and exciting Sunday of the season or it could be a damp squib. But regardless of whether they make the cut or not, the Bengals have given us quite the ride these last few weeks.
You just never know
Cincy’s ongoing survival exemplifies how, in sports, “unlikely” or even “improbable” does not equal “impossible”.
In line with the oddsmakers, I do not expect the Bengals to squeak in. They dug themselves too big a hole to start with and there are just too many things that still need to go their way.
But, until they are mathematically eliminated, there is always a chance. There is always hope.
That is why we love sport.
You can guess. You can make informed predictions. But you just never know.
